Views from the Hills by R. E. Stevens, GENESIS II (The Second Beginning) E-Mail views@aol.com

Pair Test Losers and Market Winners

Recently a reader asked if I had ever experienced a situation where a pair test loser among options went on to become a market success. My answer was a clear "yes" and probably more often than I'll ever remember. When you have been around as long as I have, there are not too many things I haven't seen in marketing research. (I started working in market research when Tide was the leading dish washing detergent. I keep a 1951 Tide print ad in my office to remind me how much things change. The ad is titled "A Dish washing Miracle.")

I've typically seen pair test losers become market winners when there was a significant change in the market. In the case of Ivory bar soap (the bar soap category leader for many years), which could not win a blind test among almost any of the other bar alternatives. Indeed the beauty bar segment had grown to outdistance Ivory. There was, however, a substantial percent of the population that preferred Ivory and it had little competition (Swan for the old timers), while there was a substantial number of "beauty bar" alternatives to divide up that share of the bar category. The minority segment preferring the mildness of Ivory (and it floated) was substantially strong enough to support a profitable brand and even make it the bar soap category leader.

On the other hand, the introduction of brands similar to Pampers (disposable diaper) and Tide (synthetic detergent as it was called in those days), were paradigm shifts in their category. Each in the initial introductions were not preferred among the alternatives by a majority of the consumers. New technology that replaces current technology takes time for acceptance among a majority of the consumers, while new technology that adds to and does not replace current technology has a faster rate of acceptance, for instance, portable and cellular phones. This may be easier seen in the association with evolutionary and revolutionary new products. Evolutionary new products usually bring together new technology with an already acceptable product execution, while revolutionary new products require the acceptance of a completely new bundle of features and benefits.

In evaluating the potential of a revolutionary positioning, the important reads are: strength of acceptance among a distinct population segment, size of the segment, frequency of need, number of competitors, and how well it delivers on its promise. In these cases, the product's ability to win a paired comparison blind test has little to do with its potential market success.


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